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Started by raysor Aug 23 2010, 15:07

Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Aug 23 2010, 15:07

Just reading through the myriads of emails that bombard my inbox daily and my eye caught the following which I have extracted from today's Minesite Newsletter:
"Nearly 100 per cent of the global supply of rare earth elements, high power neodymium Iron boron (NdFeB) magnets and all intermediate magnet materials are controlled by, produced in, or manufactured from materials sourced exclusively out of China. Consequently, all rare earth dependent technologies are completely reliant on Chinese sourced rare earth materials for their production. No technically viable alternatives to these rare earth materials are currently known for these applications.

Without continued export of Chinese rare earth materials, there would be no means to manufacture these technologies outside of China."


Very interesting. If you are interested take a look at the Lynas website :http://www.lynascorp.com/

From the website:

"Mt Weld Rare Earths Oxide (REO) deposit known as the ‘Central Lanthanide Deposit’ (CLD) is without a doubt the world’s richest Rare Earths ore body, capable of supplying up to 20% of the global market for 30 years."

Last edit: davids355 Aug 24 2010, 14:10

Posts: 1011



Forum

J08PNB
Power Poster

Aug 24 2010, 13:55

Is this one of your "fancied" stocks? The financials don't seem to be very impressive and would appear to be somewhere to bury a few quid and hope and then possibly lose it altogether. Your post has raised a few queries in my mind and will post new query shortly under"Investing in foreign exchanges".

Last edit: J08PNB Aug 24 2010, 14:14

Posts: 114



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Aug 24 2010, 19:00

Yes it is one of my 'fancied' stocks. That's not to say I am tipping it, just like to bring these sort of companies to your attention. What's wrong with the financials?


Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Sep 06 2010, 09:28

lYNAS announces significant increase in the Mineral Resource estimate for the deposit, previously known as the Southern Zone (now Duncan Deposit). Estimate for the deposit has increased threefold to 7.62 m tonnes at a grade of 4.8% REO for a total of 366,000 tonnes REO.
Share price last session was AU$1.24


Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Oct 06 2010, 09:42

Lynas are now showing AUD1.50 and the Aussie dollar has improved also. I sold a few at 1.33 just to lock in some profit but now got the sticky problem of what to do next. Will probably sell a few more at 1.60 and keep the rest (which probably at zero cost) until they start producing/processing/selling their rare earths. Who knows the stock could be 5 by then!!

Last edit: raysor Oct 06 2010, 10:39

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Oct 21 2010, 08:50

So much for selling at 160 ( I didn't). Now 176 and the AUD just under 1.60.
Might as well let it run, and maybe sell a few if it gets anywhere near $2
Its strange, really, the more I read about rare earths the worse it seems for Lynas. OK the Chinese keep cutting back their quotas but apparently 15% or so of the world's rare earths are in USA but the mines have been mothballed as they are not considered economically viable.  


Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Nov 24 2010, 08:21

Good news for Lynas (shares up 14cents, although they have lost around 35cents over the last 2-3 weeks from a high of nearly AU$21.80)

Lynas earlier on Wednesday confirmed it had signed a "strategic alliance" with Sojitz to supply a minimum 8,500 tonnes of rare earths a year for 10 years.

Lynas also is seeking $250 million in funding to accelerate expansion work at its Mt Weld mine in Australia and a processing plant under construction in Malaysia to double output to 22,000 tonnes a year.

Last edit: davids355 Nov 24 2010, 10:03

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Mar 01 2011, 08:51

After some weeks of weakness Lynas jumped last night to $2.11.

So much for my selling target of $2.
Will try and forget I've got them until they start producing and processing (late this year?)

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Apr 12 2011, 09:12

Nice to have a problem of not knowing when to sell!
It is also nice to make money while you are tucked up, asleep in bed!
Lynas hit $2.60 (now $2.55).
As I am in these for next to nothing I would like to hold the bulk of shares remaining when the Malaysian Advanced Material Plant comes on-line late this year.
Japan's Sojitz group has entered into a strategic alliance with Lynas and recently entered into a funding arrangement for AUD325m and bought AUD25m worth of Lynas shares at AUD2.12
(From Lynas website)
"The company plans to become the benchmark for security of supply and a world leader in quality and environmental responsibility to an international customer base, with production anticipated to commence in 2011."

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Jul 28 2011, 08:54

Summing up from Libertas "With a slight cash overrun, and the first signs of weakness in rare earth prices, they may continue to be volatile in the run up to first production, but when they do they are set to make a lot of money"

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Jan 26 2012, 11:29

Lynas announced they have raised $225m from a convertible bond (convertible at $1.25). This was in the last couple of days. The loan is not dependent on anything so you would think the Malaysian plant will get the go-ahead. This is due to be authorised by the Malaysian government by the end of the month, but it may not be as simple as a straight yes/no! The problems seem to have been stirred up by the environmentalist lobby and apparently there are eklections in Malaysia this year. But as I say would the loan have been granted if there was any doubt?

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Feb 02 2012, 14:01

One big hurdle partly jumped: Lynas granted Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) for LAMP by Malaysia's Atomic Energy Licensing Board. TOL is valid for 2 years although there are some conditions, most notably that US$50m to be paid to the Malaysian Government as a financial guarantee.
More important that the opposition doesn't win any general election! Share price jumped from AUD1.34 to AUD1.59

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Sep 06 2012, 14:56

On closer inspection it appears that the TOL was just approved in February 2012 and that it has now actually been issued (5th Sept.)
Lynas shares jumped 41%: first good news for ages. The temporary licence lasts for 2 years, I wonder what can go wrong now? Previously Aussie brokers were saying the shares would be $2 on the licence (expected Feb./March 2013) or 60 cents without the TOL.

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Oct 16 2012, 11:30

What else can go wrong? Ah, yes the proverbial banana skin!
Originally the TOL was suspended by the High Court until 10th Oct. 2012 and has now been delayed until 8th Novemeber 2012. All very worrying. The delay on starting the plant will put a strain on Lynas's cash position. I wonder what happened to the $50m that was to be paid to the Malaysian government by Lynas as a financial guarantee?
Share price now languishing at $0.67
Last edit: raysor Oct 16 2012, 11:31

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Nov 22 2012, 09:28

Lynas announce first shipment of concentrate to Malaysia for processing, share price up at 68cents. My long affair with Lynas illustrates two common situations.
1. It is better to travel than arrive.
2. Finding banana skins.
I originally bought these shares in Dec 2009 at 29.5 cents and sold 1/4 at $1.33 in Sept 2010 when rare earths were flavour of the month and the Malaysian plant was well on it's way to being built. So far so good, I was in the balance of shares for nothing! The price hit $2.50 in April 2011.
Then the banan skin appeared in the form of the environmentalists. The completion of the plant was delayed by lagal processes and there were worries about the cash situation. The price sank to a low of 55 cents and new money was raised at 75 cents.
The legal challenges were defeated and the plant is now ready to start processing

I originally bought Lynas in Dec 2009 at 52.5 cents. and sold around 1/4 of my shares in at $1.33 in Sept 2010. The Malaysian plant was nearing completion and rare earths were flavour of the month. The shares peaked at around $2.50 in May 2011. Looking like a pretty good investment. Then the banana skin appeared in the form of environmentalists. The completion of the Malaysian plant was delayed by legal actions and started eating into Lynas cash. The share price sank to a low of 55 cents and new money was raised at 75 cents.
The legal challenges were defeated and the plant is now ready to start processing, with the first shipment of concentrate having been shipped. Share price is now 68 cents.
An interesting lesson!

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

May 07 2013, 09:35

THe Malaysian elections were held over the weekend and the result was that the ruling party have retained power. Which is excellent news for Lynas as the opposition party were threatning to scupper the Lynas processing plant. The shares jumped nearly 20% on the news although subsequently settled back a bit at around 58 cents.

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

May 09 2013, 09:22

Lynas share price rose to 65c.
Now I recall some analyst saying the shares were worth this sort of valuation without the Malaysian plant. I know the rare earths 'bubble' has been deflated somewhat but surely these shares are worth nearer $1?
Last edit: raysor May 09 2013, 09:22

Posts: 1011



Forum

raysor
Moderator, Team

Jun 19 2013, 10:57

Malaysian press reported 18th June that Lynas sees good returns from the Gebeng plant and expect a profit for the group next year after 12 years of losses. The Malaysian plant is expected to contribute as much as 80% to the company.
The plant is seen as a game-changer in the Rare Earth business.
It will be producing 20% of the world's refined rare earths, placing Malaysia as the world's second largest producer.
Rare Earths are essential to civilian and military technologies and critical in most mobile devices, computers and televisions.
Lynas appears to have jumped all the significant hurdles, having spent RM2.5bn on the plant. Generous tax breaks from the Malaysian government will help.
Share price around 44 cents, Aussie.
Full report http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20130618235425/Article/index_html

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